IN-08 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 6:00 PM local time: 6:00 PM ET in most of Indiana, 7:00 PM ET in 12 Central-time counties
Messmer 96% chance
- Mary Allen (D)+1% past 7 days4%
- Mark Messmer (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Allen4%
- Messmer96%
Chance over time, past month: Allen from 3% to 4%; Messmer from 96% to 96%.
| Date | Allen | Messmer |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Messmer by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Messmer +40.1 to Messmer +15.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Messmer by 45+ | 3% |
| Messmer by 40–45 | 7% |
| Messmer by 35–40 | 3% |
| Messmer by 30–35 | 21% |
| Messmer by 25–30 | 16% |
| Messmer by 20–25 | 29% |
| Messmer by 15–20 | 13% |
| Messmer by 5–15 | 3% |
| Messmer by 0–5 | <1% |
| Allen wins | 4% |