IN-01 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 6:00 PM local time: 6:00 PM ET in most of Indiana, 7:00 PM ET in 12 Central-time counties
Mrvan 96% chance
- Frank Mrvan (D)-1% past 7 days96%
- Barb Regnitz (R)+1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Mrvan96%
- Regnitz2%
Chance over time, past month: Mrvan from 94% to 96%; Regnitz from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Mrvan | Regnitz |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 94% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Mrvan by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Mrvan +10.4 to Mrvan +26.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Regnitz wins | 2% |
| Mrvan by 0–5 | 2% |
| Mrvan by 5–10 | 4% |
| Mrvan by 10–15 | 15% |
| Mrvan by 15–20 | 33% |
| Mrvan by 20–25 | 29% |
| Mrvan by 25–30 | 11% |
| Mrvan by 30+ | 2% |