IN-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 6:00 PM local time: 6:00 PM ET in most of Indiana, 7:00 PM ET in 12 Central-time counties
Baird 95% chance
- Drew Cox (D)0% past 7 days5%
- Jim Baird (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Cox5%
- Baird95%
Chance over time, past month: Cox from 6% to 5%; Baird from 94% to 95%.
| Date | Cox | Baird |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Baird by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Baird +34.5 to a Cox win
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Baird by 40+ | 1% |
| Baird by 35–40 | 7% |
| Baird by 30–35 | 20% |
| Baird by 25–30 | 17% |
| Baird by 20–25 | 25% |
| Baird by 15–20 | 14% |
| Baird by 10–15 | 3% |
| Baird by 0–10 | 1% |
| Cox wins | 12% |