KY-03 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
McGarvey 98% chance
- Morgan McGarvey (D)+1% past 7 days98%
- Maria Rodriguez (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- McGarvey98%
- Rodriguez2%
Chance over time, past month: McGarvey from 95% to 98%; Rodriguez from 5% to 2%.
| Date | McGarvey | Rodriguez |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 5% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely McGarvey by 30–35 · 8 in 10: McGarvey +23.9 to McGarvey +38.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rodriguez wins | <1% |
| McGarvey by 0–5 | 1% |
| McGarvey by 5–15 | <1% |
| McGarvey by 15–20 | 5% |
| McGarvey by 20–25 | 5% |
| McGarvey by 25–30 | 33% |
| McGarvey by 30–35 | 36% |
| McGarvey by 35–40 | 14% |
| McGarvey by 40–45 | 5% |
| McGarvey by 45+ | 1% |