KY Senate forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 6:00 PM local time: 6:00 PM ET in most of Kentucky, 7:00 PM ET in the Central-time west
Barr 97% chance
- Charles Booker (D)0% past 7 days3%
- Andy Barr (R)+1% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Booker3%
- Barr97%
Chance over time, past month: Booker from 3% to 3%; Barr from 96% to 97%.
| Date | Booker | Barr |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Barr by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Barr +29.7 to Barr +5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Barr by 45+ | 1% |
| Barr by 40–45 | 4% |
| Barr by 35–40 | 2% |
| Barr by 30–35 | 2% |
| Barr by 25–30 | 10% |
| Barr by 20–25 | 21% |
| Barr by 15–20 | 23% |
| Barr by 10–15 | 19% |
| Barr by 0–10 | 15% |
| Booker wins | 2% |