AR Senate forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 7:30 PM local time
Cotton 95% chance
- Hallie Shoffner (D)-1% past 7 days5%
- Tom Cotton (R)+1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Shoffner5%
- Cotton95%
Chance over time, past month: Shoffner from 4% to 5%; Cotton from 96% to 95%.
| Date | Shoffner | Cotton |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Cotton by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Cotton +28.5 to Cotton +5.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cotton by 40+ | 4% |
| Cotton by 35–40 | 2% |
| Cotton by 30–35 | 3% |
| Cotton by 25–30 | 3% |
| Cotton by 20–25 | 10% |
| Cotton by 15–20 | 24% |
| Cotton by 10–15 | 30% |
| Cotton by 5–10 | 15% |
| Cotton by 0–5 | 4% |
| Shoffner wins | 5% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Shoffner wins, Democrats win the Senate in 94 of 100. Where Cotton wins, in 63 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.
More in Arkansas
Ballot measures
- Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 93%