AR Governor forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 7:30 PM local time
Sanders 97% chance
- Fredrick Love (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Sarah Huckabee Sanders (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Love2%
- Sanders97%
Chance over time, past month: Love from 3% to 2%; Sanders from 97% to 97%.
| Date | Love | Sanders |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Sanders by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Sanders +26.7 to Sanders +7.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Sanders by 35+ | 1% |
| Sanders by 30–35 | 4% |
| Sanders by 25–30 | 6% |
| Sanders by 20–25 | 28% |
| Sanders by 15–20 | 14% |
| Sanders by 10–15 | 31% |
| Sanders by 5–10 | 8% |
| Sanders by 0–5 | 1% |
| Love wins | 5% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Republicans.
More in Arkansas
Ballot measures
- Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 93%