AR-03 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:30 PM local time
Womack 95% chance
- Robb Ryerse (D)0% past 7 days4%
- Steve Womack (R)-1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Ryerse4%
- Womack95%
Chance over time, past month: Ryerse from 6% to 4%; Womack from 95% to 95%.
| Date | Ryerse | Womack |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 94% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Womack by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Womack +31.5 to Womack +10.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Womack by 40+ | 2% |
| Womack by 35–40 | 4% |
| Womack by 30–35 | 7% |
| Womack by 25–30 | 15% |
| Womack by 20–25 | 24% |
| Womack by 15–20 | 21% |
| Womack by 10–15 | 21% |
| Womack by 0–10 | 5% |
| Ryerse wins | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Steve Womack (R)
More in Arkansas
Ballot measures
- Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 94%