AR-01 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:30 PM local time
Crawford 98% chance
- Terri Green (D)+1% past 7 days2%
- Rick Crawford (R)0% past 7 days98%
Chance over time
- Green2%
- Crawford98%
Chance over time, past month: Green from 1% to 2%; Crawford from 97% to 98%.
| Date | Green | Crawford |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 1% | 97% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
Projected margin
Most likely Crawford by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Crawford +50.1 to Crawford +28.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Crawford by 55+ | 3% |
| Crawford by 50–55 | 7% |
| Crawford by 45–50 | 8% |
| Crawford by 40–45 | 26% |
| Crawford by 35–40 | 32% |
| Crawford by 30–35 | 12% |
| Crawford by 25–30 | 4% |
| Crawford by 15–25 | 4% |
| Crawford by 0–15 | 2% |
| Green wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Eric A. "Rick" Crawford (R)
More in Arkansas
Ballot measures
- Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 94%