AR-02 House forecast
Likely Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:30 PM local time
Hill 85% chance
- Chris Jones (D)-3% past 7 days16%
- French Hill (R)+3% past 7 days85%
Chance over time
- Jones16%
- Hill85%
Chance over time, past month: Jones from 16% to 16%; Hill from 84% to 85%.
| Date | Jones | Hill |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 17% | 84% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 18% | 82% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 19% | 82% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 16% | 84% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hill by 0–5 · 8 in 10: Hill +14.9 to Jones +3.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hill by 25+ | 1% |
| Hill by 20–25 | 6% |
| Hill by 15–20 | 3% |
| Hill by 10–15 | 23% |
| Hill by 5–10 | 24% |
| Hill by 0–5 | 28% |
| Jones by 0–5 | 10% |
| Jones by 5+ | 6% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. J. French Hill (R)
More in Arkansas
Ballot measures
- Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 94%