AR-04 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 7:30 PM local time
Westerman 96% chance
- James Russell (D)0% past 7 days2%
- Bruce Westerman (R)-1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Russell2%
- Westerman96%
Chance over time, past month: Russell from 2% to 2%; Westerman from 97% to 96%.
| Date | Russell | Westerman |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Westerman by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Westerman +42.6 to Westerman +17.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Westerman by 55+ | <1% |
| Westerman by 50–55 | 2% |
| Westerman by 45–50 | 3% |
| Westerman by 40–45 | 10% |
| Westerman by 35–40 | 23% |
| Westerman by 30–35 | 27% |
| Westerman by 25–30 | 20% |
| Westerman by 15–25 | 7% |
| Westerman by 0–15 | 2% |
| Russell wins | 6% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Bruce Westerman (R)
More in Arkansas
Ballot measures
- Arkansas passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?Yes 94%