NY-08 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Jeffries 97% chance
- Hakeem Jeffries (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Lewis Mizrahi (R)+1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Jeffries97%
- Mizrahi2%
Chance over time, past month: Jeffries from 97% to 97%; Mizrahi from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Jeffries | Mizrahi |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Jeffries by 55–60 · 8 in 10: Jeffries +38.1 to Jeffries +64.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mizrahi wins | <1% |
| Jeffries by 0–30 | 3% |
| Jeffries by 30–40 | 8% |
| Jeffries by 40–45 | 4% |
| Jeffries by 45–50 | 17% |
| Jeffries by 50–55 | 17% |
| Jeffries by 55–60 | 25% |
| Jeffries by 60–65 | 17% |
| Jeffries by 65–70 | 4% |
| Jeffries by 70+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Hakeem S. Jeffries (D)