NY-09 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Clarke 97% chance
- Yvette Clarke (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Joel Anabilah-Azumah (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Clarke97%
- Anabilah-Azumah2%
Chance over time, past month: Clarke from 95% to 97%; Anabilah-Azumah from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Clarke | Anabilah-Azumah |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Clarke by 55–60 · 8 in 10: Clarke +46.9 to Clarke +63.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Anabilah-Azumah wins | <1% |
| Clarke by 0–25 | 1% |
| Clarke by 25–35 | <1% |
| Clarke by 35–40 | <1% |
| Clarke by 40–45 | 1% |
| Clarke by 45–50 | 21% |
| Clarke by 50–55 | 17% |
| Clarke by 55–60 | 37% |
| Clarke by 60–65 | 21% |
| Clarke by 65+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Yvette D. Clarke (D)