NY-20 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Tonko 97% chance
- Paul Tonko (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Ralph Ambrosio (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Tonko97%
- Ambrosio3%
Chance over time, past month: Tonko from 96% to 97%; Ambrosio from 4% to 3%.
| Date | Tonko | Ambrosio |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 95% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Tonko by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Tonko +20.3 to Tonko +40
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ambrosio wins | 4% |
| Tonko by 0–10 | 1% |
| Tonko by 10–15 | <1% |
| Tonko by 15–20 | 4% |
| Tonko by 20–25 | 6% |
| Tonko by 25–30 | 23% |
| Tonko by 30–35 | 28% |
| Tonko by 35–40 | 23% |
| Tonko by 40+ | 10% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Paul Tonko (D)