NJ-09 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Pou 97% chance
- Nellie Pou (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Rosie Pino (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Pou97%
- Pino2%
Chance over time, past month: Pou from 93% to 97%; Pino from 7% to 2%.
| Date | Pou | Pino |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 95% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Pou by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Pou +4.5 to Pou +25.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Pino wins | 5% |
| Pou by 0–5 | 5% |
| Pou by 5–10 | 6% |
| Pou by 10–15 | 21% |
| Pou by 15–20 | 29% |
| Pou by 20–25 | 23% |
| Pou by 25–30 | 6% |
| Pou by 30+ | 4% |