NJ-03 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Conaway 98% chance
- Herb Conaway (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Michael McGuire (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Conaway98%
- McGuire2%
Chance over time, past month: Conaway from 95% to 98%; McGuire from 5% to 2%.
| Date | Conaway | McGuire |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 93% | 5% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Conaway by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Conaway +6.8 to Conaway +32.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| McGuire wins | 7% |
| Conaway by 0–5 | 1% |
| Conaway by 5–10 | 6% |
| Conaway by 10–15 | 7% |
| Conaway by 15–20 | 21% |
| Conaway by 20–25 | 37% |
| Conaway by 25–30 | 8% |
| Conaway by 30–35 | 8% |
| Conaway by 35+ | 6% |