NJ-12 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Hamawy 98% chance
- Adam Hamawy (D)+1% past 7 days98%
- Gregg Mele (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Hamawy98%
- Mele2%
Chance over time, past month: Hamawy from 97% to 98%; Mele from 3% to 2%.
| Date | Hamawy | Mele |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hamawy by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Hamawy +11.2 to Hamawy +43.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Mele wins | 4% |
| Hamawy by 0–5 | 5% |
| Hamawy by 5–15 | 2% |
| Hamawy by 15–20 | 3% |
| Hamawy by 20–25 | 3% |
| Hamawy by 25–30 | 8% |
| Hamawy by 30–35 | 23% |
| Hamawy by 35–40 | 26% |
| Hamawy by 40–45 | 21% |
| Hamawy by 45+ | 4% |