TN-01 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Eastern, 7:00 PM Central
Harshbarger 98% chance
- Kristi Burke (D)+1% past 7 days3%
- Diana Harshbarger (R)-1% past 7 days98%
Chance over time
- Burke3%
- Harshbarger98%
Chance over time, past month: Burke from 3% to 3%; Harshbarger from 98% to 98%.
| Date | Burke | Harshbarger |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 2% | 99% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 98% |
Projected margin
Most likely Harshbarger by 50–55 · 8 in 10: Harshbarger +57.5 to Harshbarger +22.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Harshbarger by 60+ | 7% |
| Harshbarger by 55–60 | 5% |
| Harshbarger by 50–55 | 31% |
| Harshbarger by 45–50 | 16% |
| Harshbarger by 40–45 | 16% |
| Harshbarger by 35–40 | 5% |
| Harshbarger by 30–35 | 6% |
| Harshbarger by 20–30 | 3% |
| Harshbarger by 0–20 | 9% |
| Burke wins | <1% |