TN-06 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Eastern, 7:00 PM Central
Garrett 96% chance
- Mike Croley (D)0% past 7 days5%
- Johnny Garrett (R)0% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Croley5%
- Garrett96%
Chance over time, past month: Croley from 6% to 5%; Garrett from 95% to 96%.
| Date | Croley | Garrett |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Garrett by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Garrett +31.2 to Garrett +6.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Garrett by 40+ | 4% |
| Garrett by 35–40 | 2% |
| Garrett by 30–35 | 6% |
| Garrett by 25–30 | 14% |
| Garrett by 20–25 | 20% |
| Garrett by 15–20 | 27% |
| Garrett by 10–15 | 14% |
| Garrett by 0–10 | 10% |
| Croley wins | 4% |