TN Senate forecast
Safe Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Eastern, 7:00 PM Central
Hagerty 96% chance
- Marquita Bradshaw (D)-1% past 7 days4%
- Bill Hagerty (R)+2% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Bradshaw4%
- Hagerty96%
Chance over time, past month: Bradshaw from 4% to 4%; Hagerty from 96% to 96%.
| Date | Bradshaw | Hagerty |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 94% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Hagerty by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Hagerty +34.2 to Hagerty +11.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hagerty by 45+ | 2% |
| Hagerty by 40–45 | 2% |
| Hagerty by 35–40 | 4% |
| Hagerty by 30–35 | 11% |
| Hagerty by 25–30 | 10% |
| Hagerty by 20–25 | 28% |
| Hagerty by 15–20 | 24% |
| Hagerty by 10–15 | 12% |
| Hagerty by 0–10 | 2% |
| Bradshaw wins | 5% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Bradshaw wins, Democrats win the Senate in 94 of 100. Where Hagerty wins, in 63 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.