NJ-07 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 linesProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Bennett 93% chance
- Rebecca Bennett (D)+1% past 7 days93%
- Thomas Kean Jr. (R)-1% past 7 days8%
Chance over time
- Bennett93%
- Kean8%
Chance over time, past month: Bennett from 84% to 93%; Kean from 18% to 8%.
| Date | Bennett | Kean |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 84% | 18% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 89% | 10% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 91% | 8% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 93% | 9% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 93% | 7% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Bennett wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Kean wins, in 76 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Thomas H. Kean, Jr. (R)
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.