NY-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Gillen 93% chance
- Laura Gillen (D)+2% past 7 days93%
- Jeanine Driscoll (R)-3% past 7 days6%
Chance over time
- Gillen93%
- Driscoll6%
Chance over time, past month: Gillen from 91% to 93%; Driscoll from 10% to 6%.
| Date | Gillen | Driscoll |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 91% | 10% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 91% | 9% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 91% | 10% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 91% | 9% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 93% | 6% |
Projected margin
Most likely Gillen by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Gillen +6.9 to Gillen +20.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Driscoll wins | 3% |
| Gillen by 0–5 | <1% |
| Gillen by 5–10 | 18% |
| Gillen by 10–15 | 26% |
| Gillen by 15–20 | 43% |
| Gillen by 20–25 | 7% |
| Gillen by 25–30 | 3% |
| Gillen by 30+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Gillen wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where Driscoll wins, in 75 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Laura Gillen (D)