NY-21 House forecast
Likely Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Constantino 71% chance
- Blake Gendebien (D)+2% past 7 days30%
- Anthony Constantino (R)-3% past 7 days71%
Chance over time
- Gendebien30%
- Constantino71%
Chance over time, past month: Gendebien from 22% to 30%; Constantino from 77% to 71%.
| Date | Gendebien | Constantino |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 22% | 78% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 18% | 84% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 17% | 83% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 28% | 73% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 30% | 71% |
Projected margin
No margin forecast for this race.
Helm simulation
In simulated elections where Gendebien wins, Democrats win the House in 97 of 100. Where Constantino wins, in 89 of 100.
Context
- Held by Rep. Elise M. Stefanik (R)