NY-22 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Mannion 96% chance
- John Mannion (D)+2% past 7 days96%
- Kailee Buller (R)-1% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Mannion96%
- Buller4%
Chance over time, past month: Mannion from 94% to 96%; Buller from 6% to 4%.
| Date | Mannion | Buller |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Mannion by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Mannion +13.3 to Mannion +29
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Buller wins | 1% |
| Mannion by 0–5 | 1% |
| Mannion by 5–10 | 1% |
| Mannion by 10–15 | 11% |
| Mannion by 15–20 | 32% |
| Mannion by 20–25 | 32% |
| Mannion by 25–30 | 14% |
| Mannion by 30+ | 7% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. John W. Mannion (D)