KY-05 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Rogers 97% chance
- Ned Pillersdorf (D)-1% past 7 days3%
- Hal Rogers (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Pillersdorf3%
- Rogers97%
Chance over time, past month: Pillersdorf from 5% to 3%; Rogers from 95% to 97%.
| Date | Pillersdorf | Rogers |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 4% | 97% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 97% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 3% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Rogers by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Rogers +61.7 to Rogers +40.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Rogers by 70+ | <1% |
| Rogers by 65–70 | 6% |
| Rogers by 60–65 | 6% |
| Rogers by 55–60 | 23% |
| Rogers by 50–55 | 17% |
| Rogers by 45–50 | 17% |
| Rogers by 40–45 | 24% |
| Rogers by 30–40 | 4% |
| Rogers by 0–30 | 3% |
| Pillersdorf wins | <1% |