MA Senate forecast
Safe Dem
Polls close
Markey 98% chance
- Ed Markey (D)0% past 7 days98%
- John Deaton (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Markey98%
- Deaton2%
Chance over time, past month: Markey from 98% to 98%; Deaton from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Markey | Deaton |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Markey by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Markey +21.2 to Markey +42.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Deaton wins | <1% |
| Markey by 0–10 | 1% |
| Markey by 10–15 | 2% |
| Markey by 15–20 | 4% |
| Markey by 20–25 | 12% |
| Markey by 25–30 | 18% |
| Markey by 30–35 | 29% |
| Markey by 35–40 | 20% |
| Markey by 40–45 | 8% |
| Markey by 45+ | 6% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Markey wins, Democrats win the Senate in 65 of 100. Where Deaton wins, in 17 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Democrats.
More in Massachusetts
Ballot measures
- Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?Yes 59%