MA-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Auchincloss 97% chance
- Jake Auchincloss (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Tom Stalcup (R)+1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Auchincloss97%
- Stalcup2%
Chance over time, past month: Auchincloss from 97% to 97%; Stalcup from 1% to 2%.
| Date | Auchincloss | Stalcup |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Auchincloss by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Auchincloss +14.2 to Auchincloss +41.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Stalcup wins | <1% |
| Auchincloss by 0–5 | 6% |
| Auchincloss by 5–15 | 4% |
| Auchincloss by 15–20 | 3% |
| Auchincloss by 20–25 | 12% |
| Auchincloss by 25–30 | 15% |
| Auchincloss by 30–35 | 28% |
| Auchincloss by 35–40 | 18% |
| Auchincloss by 40–45 | 8% |
| Auchincloss by 45+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D)
More in Massachusetts
Ballot measures
- Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?Yes 59%