TX-30 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Haynes 97% chance
- Frederick Haynes III (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Everett Jackson (R)-1% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Haynes97%
- Jackson2%
Chance over time, past month: Haynes from 96% to 97%; Jackson from 3% to 2%.
| Date | Haynes | Jackson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 93% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 95% | 2% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Haynes by 50–55 · 8 in 10: Haynes +44.5 to Haynes +65.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jackson wins | 1% |
| Haynes by 0–30 | 3% |
| Haynes by 30–40 | 2% |
| Haynes by 40–45 | 5% |
| Haynes by 45–50 | 16% |
| Haynes by 50–55 | 25% |
| Haynes by 55–60 | 18% |
| Haynes by 60–65 | 20% |
| Haynes by 65–70 | 4% |
| Haynes by 70+ | 7% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-30 member was elected on different lines.