TX-07 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Fletcher 97% chance
- Lizzie Fletcher (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Alexander Hale (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Fletcher97%
- Hale2%
Chance over time, past month: Fletcher from 96% to 97%; Hale from 2% to 2%.
| Date | Fletcher | Hale |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 2% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Fletcher by 30–35 · 8 in 10: Fletcher +28.9 to Fletcher +44.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hale wins | <1% |
| Fletcher by 0–10 | 1% |
| Fletcher by 10–20 | 1% |
| Fletcher by 20–25 | 3% |
| Fletcher by 25–30 | 5% |
| Fletcher by 30–35 | 31% |
| Fletcher by 35–40 | 29% |
| Fletcher by 40–45 | 21% |
| Fletcher by 45–50 | 7% |
| Fletcher by 50+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-07 member was elected on different lines.