MD-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Ivey 98% chance
- Glenn Ivey (D)0% past 7 days98%
- George McDermott (R)0% past 7 days<1%
Chance over time
- Ivey98%
- McDermott<1%
Chance over time, past month: Ivey from 97% to 98%; McDermott from 1% to <1%.
| Date | Ivey | McDermott |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | <1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Ivey by 80–85 · 8 in 10: Ivey +73.5 to Ivey +89.2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| McDermott wins | <1% |
| Ivey by 0–50 | <1% |
| Ivey by 50–60 | <1% |
| Ivey by 60–65 | <1% |
| Ivey by 65–70 | 6% |
| Ivey by 70–75 | 5% |
| Ivey by 75–80 | 23% |
| Ivey by 80–85 | 33% |
| Ivey by 85–90 | 26% |
| Ivey by 90+ | 6% |