MD-08 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Raskin 97% chance
- Jamie Raskin (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Cheryl Riley (R)0% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Raskin97%
- Riley3%
Chance over time, past month: Raskin from 97% to 97%; Riley from 3% to 3%.
| Date | Raskin | Riley |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Raskin by 60–65 · 8 in 10: Raskin +47.2 to Raskin +77.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Riley wins | <1% |
| Raskin by 0–40 | 3% |
| Raskin by 40–50 | 9% |
| Raskin by 50–55 | 3% |
| Raskin by 55–60 | 16% |
| Raskin by 60–65 | 26% |
| Raskin by 65–70 | 20% |
| Raskin by 70–75 | 7% |
| Raskin by 75–80 | 12% |
| Raskin by 80+ | 3% |