TX-15 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Pulido 87% chance
- Bobby Pulido (D)+5% past 7 days87%
- Monica De La Cruz (R)-5% past 7 days14%
Chance over time
- Pulido87%
- De La Cruz14%
Chance over time, past month: Pulido from 68% to 87%; De La Cruz from 31% to 14%.
| Date | Pulido | De La Cruz |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 69% | 31% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 75% | 26% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 80% | 20% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 81% | 19% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 87% | 14% |
Projected margin
Most likely Pulido by 0–3 · 8 in 10: De La Cruz +2.3 to Pulido +12
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| De La Cruz by 12+ | 1% |
| De La Cruz by 9–12 | <1% |
| De La Cruz by 6–9 | 1% |
| De La Cruz by 3–6 | 5% |
| De La Cruz by 0–3 | 12% |
| Pulido by 0–3 | 18% |
| Pulido by 3–6 | 18% |
| Pulido by 6–9 | 16% |
| Pulido by 9–12 | 16% |
| Pulido by 12+ | 13% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Pulido wins, Democrats win the House in 93 of 100. Where De La Cruz wins, in 80 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-15 member was elected on different lines.