TX-32 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Yarbrough 86% chance
- Dan Barrios (D)+4% past 7 days14%
- Jace Yarbrough (R)-4% past 7 days86%
Chance over time
- Barrios14%
- Yarbrough86%
Chance over time, past month: Barrios from 5% to 14%; Yarbrough from 93% to 86%.
| Date | Barrios | Yarbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 10% | 90% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 10% | 87% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 11% | 90% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 10% | 90% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
Projected margin
Most likely Yarbrough by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Yarbrough +20.9 to Yarbrough +0.3
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Yarbrough by 21+ | 10% |
| Yarbrough by 18–21 | 7% |
| Yarbrough by 15–18 | 12% |
| Yarbrough by 12–15 | 15% |
| Yarbrough by 9–12 | 12% |
| Yarbrough by 6–9 | 18% |
| Yarbrough by 3–6 | 13% |
| Yarbrough by 0–3 | 4% |
| Barrios by 0–3 | 3% |
| Barrios by 3+ | 6% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-32 member was elected on different lines.