NC-09 House forecast
Likely Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Hudson 81% chance
- Richard Ojeda (D)+2% past 7 days20%
- Richard Hudson (R)-1% past 7 days81%
Chance over time
- Ojeda20%
- Hudson81%
Chance over time, past month: Ojeda from 28% to 20%; Hudson from 74% to 81%.
| Date | Ojeda | Hudson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 28% | 74% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 24% | 78% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 17% | 82% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 18% | 82% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 20% | 81% |
Projected margin
Most likely Ojeda by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Hudson +15 to Ojeda +2
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Hudson by 18+ | 3% |
| Hudson by 15–18 | 7% |
| Hudson by 12–15 | 17% |
| Hudson by 9–12 | 16% |
| Hudson by 6–9 | 7% |
| Hudson by 3–6 | 13% |
| Hudson by 0–3 | 15% |
| Ojeda by 0–3 | 18% |
| Ojeda by 3–6 | 4% |
| Ojeda by 6+ | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-09 member was elected on different lines.