NC Senate forecast
Safe DemProjected flip R → D
Polls close
Cooper 97% chance
- Roy Cooper (D)+1% past 7 days97%
- Michael Whatley (R)-1% past 7 days4%
Chance over time
- Cooper97%
- Whatley4%
Chance over time, past month: Cooper from 93% to 97%; Whatley from 8% to 4%.
| Date | Cooper | Whatley |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 95% | 7% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 96% | 6% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 4% |
Projected margin
Most likely Cooper by 12–15 · 8 in 10: Cooper +5.6 to Cooper +18
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Whatley by 6+ | <1% |
| Whatley by 3–6 | <1% |
| Whatley by 0–3 | <1% |
| Cooper by 0–3 | 1% |
| Cooper by 3–6 | 10% |
| Cooper by 6–9 | 18% |
| Cooper by 9–12 | 24% |
| Cooper by 12–15 | 27% |
| Cooper by 15–18 | 8% |
| Cooper by 18+ | 12% |
Helm simulation
Decides Senate control in 2 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Cooper wins, Democrats win the Senate in 66 of 100. Where Whatley wins, in 21 of 100.
Context
- Seat held by Republicans.
- Projected flip from Republicans to Democrats: the favourite is not from the party that holds it.