NC-04 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Foushee 97% chance
- Valerie Foushee (D)-1% past 7 days97%
- Max Ganorkar (R)+1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Foushee97%
- Ganorkar3%
Chance over time, past month: Foushee from 94% to 97%; Ganorkar from 4% to 3%.
| Date | Foushee | Ganorkar |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 96% | 4% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Foushee by 55–60 · 8 in 10: Foushee +46.2 to Foushee +60
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Ganorkar wins | <1% |
| Foushee by 0–20 | <1% |
| Foushee by 20–30 | 2% |
| Foushee by 30–35 | 2% |
| Foushee by 35–40 | <1% |
| Foushee by 40–45 | 4% |
| Foushee by 45–50 | 10% |
| Foushee by 50–55 | 26% |
| Foushee by 55–60 | 32% |
| Foushee by 60+ | 24% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-04 member was elected on different lines.