NC-10 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close
Harrigan 96% chance
- Ashley Bell (D)-1% past 7 days4%
- Pat Harrigan (R)+1% past 7 days96%
Chance over time
- Bell4%
- Harrigan96%
Chance over time, past month: Bell from 3% to 4%; Harrigan from 96% to 96%.
| Date | Bell | Harrigan |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 4% | 97% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
Projected margin
Most likely Harrigan by 5–10 · 8 in 10: Harrigan +26.6 to Harrigan +5.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Harrigan by 30+ | 8% |
| Harrigan by 25–30 | 3% |
| Harrigan by 20–25 | 2% |
| Harrigan by 15–20 | 20% |
| Harrigan by 10–15 | 27% |
| Harrigan by 5–10 | 33% |
| Harrigan by 0–5 | 4% |
| Bell wins | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current NC-10 member was elected on different lines.