NV-03 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Lee 95% chance
- Susie Lee (D)+1% past 7 days95%
- Martin O'Donnell (R)0% past 7 days5%
Chance over time
- Lee95%
- O'Donnell5%
Chance over time, past month: Lee from 94% to 95%; O'Donnell from 6% to 5%.
| Date | Lee | O'Donnell |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 94% | 6% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 95% | 6% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
Projected margin
Most likely Lee by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Lee +5.8 to Lee +22.1
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| O'Donnell by 5+ | 2% |
| O'Donnell by 0–5 | 2% |
| Lee by 0–5 | 3% |
| Lee by 5–10 | 15% |
| Lee by 10–15 | 32% |
| Lee by 15–20 | 32% |
| Lee by 20–25 | 8% |
| Lee by 25+ | 6% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Susie Lee (D)
More in Nevada
Ballot measures
- Will the Nevada abortion protection amendment pass?Yes 99%