TX-08 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Steinmann 95% chance
- Laura Jones (D)+1% past 7 days5%
- Jessica Hart Steinmann (R)0% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Jones5%
- Steinmann95%
Chance over time, past month: Jones from 5% to 5%; Steinmann from 96% to 95%.
| Date | Jones | Steinmann |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 4% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 3% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Steinmann by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Steinmann +30.5 to Steinmann +7.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Steinmann by 35+ | 4% |
| Steinmann by 30–35 | 7% |
| Steinmann by 25–30 | 13% |
| Steinmann by 20–25 | 19% |
| Steinmann by 15–20 | 20% |
| Steinmann by 10–15 | 19% |
| Steinmann by 5–10 | 19% |
| Steinmann by 0–5 | <1% |
| Jones wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-08 member was elected on different lines.