TX-24 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Van Duyne 91% chance
- Kevin Burge (D)+1% past 7 days9%
- Beth Van Duyne (R)-2% past 7 days91%
Chance over time
- Burge9%
- Van Duyne91%
Chance over time, past month: Burge from 9% to 9%; Van Duyne from 90% to 91%.
| Date | Burge | Van Duyne |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 9% | 90% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 10% | 90% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 7% | 92% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 7% | 92% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 9% | 91% |
Projected margin
Most likely Van Duyne by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Van Duyne +21 to Burge +0.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Van Duyne by 21+ | 11% |
| Van Duyne by 18–21 | 4% |
| Van Duyne by 15–18 | 5% |
| Van Duyne by 12–15 | 7% |
| Van Duyne by 9–12 | 16% |
| Van Duyne by 6–9 | 16% |
| Van Duyne by 3–6 | 15% |
| Van Duyne by 0–3 | 14% |
| Burge by 0–3 | 8% |
| Burge by 3+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-24 member was elected on different lines.