TX-31 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Carter 95% chance
- Justin Early (D)0% past 7 days5%
- John Carter (R)-1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Early5%
- Carter95%
Chance over time, past month: Early from 7% to 5%; Carter from 93% to 95%.
| Date | Early | Carter |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 96% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 95% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 5% | 96% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Carter by 10–15 · 8 in 10: Carter +25.7 to Carter +5.7
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Carter by 30+ | 5% |
| Carter by 25–30 | 6% |
| Carter by 20–25 | 15% |
| Carter by 15–20 | 17% |
| Carter by 10–15 | 29% |
| Carter by 5–10 | 21% |
| Carter by 0–5 | 5% |
| Early wins | 2% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-31 member was elected on different lines.