TX-20 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Castro 97% chance
- Joaquin Castro (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Edgardo Rafael Baez (R)+1% past 7 days3%
Chance over time
- Castro97%
- Baez3%
Chance over time, past month: Castro from 95% to 97%; Baez from 6% to 3%.
| Date | Castro | Baez |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 2% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 95% | 5% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 96% | 3% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 3% |
Projected margin
Most likely Castro by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Castro +34.4 to Castro +52
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Baez wins | <1% |
| Castro by 0–15 | 1% |
| Castro by 15–25 | 1% |
| Castro by 25–30 | 1% |
| Castro by 30–35 | 9% |
| Castro by 35–40 | 22% |
| Castro by 40–45 | 27% |
| Castro by 45–50 | 25% |
| Castro by 50–55 | 12% |
| Castro by 55+ | 3% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-20 member was elected on different lines.