TX Governor forecast
Likely Rep
Polls close . Statewide at 7:00 PM local time: 8:00 PM ET in most of Texas, 9:00 PM ET in the El Paso area
Abbott 73% chance
- Gina Hinojosa (D)+7% past 7 days27%
- Greg Abbott (R)-6% past 7 days73%
Chance over time
- Hinojosa27%
- Abbott73%
Chance over time, past month: Hinojosa from 22% to 27%; Abbott from 78% to 73%.
| Date | Hinojosa | Abbott |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 21% | 80% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 20% | 81% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 28% | 74% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 20% | 79% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 27% | 73% |
Projected margin
Most likely Abbott by 6–9 · 8 in 10: Abbott +12.6 to Hinojosa +2.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Abbott by 18+ | 2% |
| Abbott by 15–18 | 2% |
| Abbott by 12–15 | 7% |
| Abbott by 9–12 | 10% |
| Abbott by 6–9 | 22% |
| Abbott by 3–6 | 20% |
| Abbott by 0–3 | 17% |
| Hinojosa by 0–3 | 11% |
| Hinojosa by 3–6 | 6% |
| Hinojosa by 6+ | 2% |
Helm simulation
Counts toward the simulated number of governorships. There is no published control question for governors.
Context
- Governorship held by Republicans.