TX-27 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Cloud 95% chance
- Tanya Lloyd (D)+1% past 7 days4%
- Michael Cloud (R)+1% past 7 days95%
Chance over time
- Lloyd4%
- Cloud95%
Chance over time, past month: Lloyd from 8% to 4%; Cloud from 91% to 95%.
| Date | Lloyd | Cloud |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 6% | 94% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 4% | 94% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 4% | 95% |
Projected margin
Most likely Cloud by 15–20 · 8 in 10: Cloud +23.8 to a Lloyd win
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Cloud by 30+ | 3% |
| Cloud by 25–30 | 3% |
| Cloud by 20–25 | 15% |
| Cloud by 15–20 | 22% |
| Cloud by 10–15 | 22% |
| Cloud by 5–10 | 20% |
| Cloud by 0–5 | 5% |
| Lloyd wins | 10% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-27 member was elected on different lines.