TX-13 House forecast
Safe Rep2026 lines
Polls close . Districtwide at 7:00 PM local time
Jackson 97% chance
- Mark Nair (D)+1% past 7 days2%
- Ronny Jackson (R)0% past 7 days97%
Chance over time
- Nair2%
- Jackson97%
Chance over time, past month: Nair from 5% to 2%; Jackson from 95% to 97%.
| Date | Nair | Jackson |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 5% | 95% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 2% | 98% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 2% | 97% |
Projected margin
Most likely Jackson by 40–45 · 8 in 10: Jackson +44.5 to Jackson +24.8
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jackson by 55+ | 4% |
| Jackson by 50–55 | <1% |
| Jackson by 45–50 | 3% |
| Jackson by 40–45 | 27% |
| Jackson by 35–40 | 27% |
| Jackson by 30–35 | 14% |
| Jackson by 25–30 | 16% |
| Jackson by 15–25 | 9% |
| Jackson by 0–15 | 1% |
| Nair wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current TX-13 member was elected on different lines.