NE-01 House forecast
Likely Rep2024 lines
Polls close . Statewide at 8:00 PM Central, 7:00 PM Mountain
Flood 77% chance
- Chris Backemeyer (D)+3% past 7 days21%
- Mike Flood (R)-6% past 7 days77%
Chance over time
- Backemeyer21%
- Flood77%
Chance over time, past month: Backemeyer from 18% to 21%; Flood from 83% to 77%.
| Date | Backemeyer | Flood |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 18% | 83% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 17% | 83% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 14% | 86% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 18% | 83% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 21% | 77% |
Projected margin
Most likely Flood by 12–15 · 8 in 10: Flood +14.8 to Backemeyer +1.6
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Flood by 21+ | 3% |
| Flood by 18–21 | 2% |
| Flood by 15–18 | 4% |
| Flood by 12–15 | 19% |
| Flood by 9–12 | 18% |
| Flood by 6–9 | 16% |
| Flood by 3–6 | 14% |
| Flood by 0–3 | 8% |
| Backemeyer by 0–3 | 10% |
| Backemeyer by 3+ | 5% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Mike Flood (R)