MI-06 House forecast
Safe Dem2024 lines
Polls close
Dingell 97% chance
- Debbie Dingell (D)0% past 7 days97%
- Heather Smiley (R)0% past 7 days2%
Chance over time
- Dingell97%
- Smiley2%
Chance over time, past month: Dingell from 96% to 97%; Smiley from 1% to 2%.
| Date | Dingell | Smiley |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 96% | 1% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 97% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 97% | 2% |
Projected margin
Most likely Dingell by 35–40 · 8 in 10: Dingell +25.4 to Dingell +44
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Smiley wins | <1% |
| Dingell by 0–10 | <1% |
| Dingell by 10–20 | 5% |
| Dingell by 20–25 | 3% |
| Dingell by 25–30 | 15% |
| Dingell by 30–35 | 20% |
| Dingell by 35–40 | 28% |
| Dingell by 40–45 | 23% |
| Dingell by 45–50 | 5% |
| Dingell by 50+ | 1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. Debbie Dingell (D)
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Ballot measures
- Will Michigan vote to rewrite the state Constitution?No 90%