MI-02 House forecast
Safe Rep2024 lines
Polls close
Moolenaar 98% chance
- Ben Ambrose (D)0% past 7 days1%
- John Moolenaar (R)0% past 7 days98%
Chance over time
- Ambrose1%
- Moolenaar98%
Chance over time, past month: Ambrose from 1% to 1%; Moolenaar from 98% to 98%.
| Date | Ambrose | Moolenaar |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 23, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Sep 30, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 1% | 98% |
Projected margin
Most likely Moolenaar by 20–25 · 8 in 10: Moolenaar +40 to Moolenaar +15.4
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Moolenaar by 40+ | 12% |
| Moolenaar by 35–40 | 5% |
| Moolenaar by 30–35 | 5% |
| Moolenaar by 25–30 | 20% |
| Moolenaar by 20–25 | 28% |
| Moolenaar by 15–20 | 22% |
| Moolenaar by 10–15 | 4% |
| Moolenaar by 0–10 | 3% |
| Ambrose wins | <1% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- Held by Rep. John R. Moolenaar (R)
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Ballot measures
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