OH-11 House forecast
Safe Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Brown 98% chance
- Shontel Brown (D)0% past 7 days98%
- Mike Kirchner (R)0% past 7 days1%
Chance over time
- Brown98%
- Kirchner1%
Chance over time, past month: Brown from 98% to 98%; Kirchner from 1% to 1%.
| Date | Brown | Kirchner |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 6, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 99% | 1% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 98% | 1% |
Projected margin
Most likely Brown by 60–65 · 8 in 10: Brown +42.1 to Brown +69.5
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Kirchner wins | 3% |
| Brown by 0–35 | 4% |
| Brown by 35–45 | 4% |
| Brown by 45–50 | 2% |
| Brown by 50–55 | 2% |
| Brown by 55–60 | 17% |
| Brown by 60–65 | 32% |
| Brown by 65–70 | 28% |
| Brown by 70–75 | 3% |
| Brown by 75+ | 4% |
Helm simulation
Not among the districts that most often decide House control in the simulation.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-11 member was elected on different lines.