OH-09 House forecast
Likely Dem2026 lines
Polls close
Kaptur 73% chance
- Marcy Kaptur (D)-1% past 7 days73%
- Derek Merrin (R)+1% past 7 days28%
Chance over time
- Kaptur73%
- Merrin28%
Chance over time, past month: Kaptur from 74% to 73%; Merrin from 26% to 28%.
| Date | Kaptur | Merrin |
|---|---|---|
| Sep 22, 2026 | 73% | 26% |
| Sep 29, 2026 | 74% | 26% |
| Oct 7, 2026 | 69% | 31% |
| Oct 14, 2026 | 74% | 27% |
| Oct 21, 2026 | 73% | 28% |
Projected margin
Most likely Kaptur by 0–3 · 8 in 10: Merrin +2.3 to Kaptur +12
| Margin | Chance |
|---|---|
| Merrin by 12+ | 1% |
| Merrin by 9–12 | 1% |
| Merrin by 6–9 | 1% |
| Merrin by 3–6 | 4% |
| Merrin by 0–3 | 16% |
| Kaptur by 0–3 | 19% |
| Kaptur by 3–6 | 17% |
| Kaptur by 6–9 | 12% |
| Kaptur by 9–12 | 10% |
| Kaptur by 12+ | 18% |
Helm simulation
Decides House control in 1 of 100 simulations.
In simulated elections where Kaptur wins, Democrats win the House in 95 of 100. Where Merrin wins, in 83 of 100.
Context
- New lines for 2026: the current OH-09 member was elected on different lines.